Polysilicon for the 29th time! Continued negative inventory of silicon
2022-09-01
This week, the price range of domestic single crystal re-feeding was 305-310,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 307,200 yuan/ton, up 0.39% week on week; The price range of single crystal compact material is 303,000 yuan to 308,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 305,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly month-on-month increase of 0.43%.
Domestic polysilicon prices rose slightly this week, including single crystal compound feed, single crystal dense material, single crystal cauliflower material transaction average price increase are about 0.4%. By convention, the silicon material enterprises long period generally focus on single signed or at the beginning of the end of this week but so far only two enterprises gradually began to sign a long list in September, the main reason is that companies are WuYuLiang can sign: on the one hand is part of the enterprise is more than previous order signed to September, it is in the execution, the negative inventory status continue; On the other hand, there were already 5 silicon material enterprises in maintenance in August, in addition to the temporary power supply in Sichuan, Jiangsu, Hubei and other places, which led to the increasing shortage of silicon material supply. Therefore, the signing period of long order price concentration was slightly delayed due to the unlimited amount of silicon material enterprises to sign this week. This week, the silicon market continues to overhaul, power rationing and other effects, the degree of supply shortage has not been alleviated, supporting silicon prices to maintain a slight rise trend.
Up to now, 14 domestic polysilicon production enterprises, a total of 5 enterprises in August, 3 of which have begun to recover this week, the remaining 2 are expected to resume normal operation in September and October. Three silicon companies, which were forced to cut production due to power rationing in August, began to gradually restore power supply this week and are expected to climb to full capacity in early September. According to statistics, the domestic polysilicon output in August was about 61,700 tons, a slight increase of 5.5% month-on-month. The output of the top four enterprises totaled 51,900 tons, accounting for 84.1% of the total domestic output. The increase in August was mainly reflected in the resumption of production through overhaul and the release of new production capacity, including Xinjiang GCL, Baotou Xinte, Inner Mongolia Tongwei, Qinghai Lihao, etc., totaling 11021 tons. The output of August was about 6.5% lower than expected, mainly due to the temporary power supply restriction in various places. The reduction mainly included Jiangsu Zhongneng, Leshan GCL, Sichuan Yongxiang, Yongxiang New Energy, Yichang Southern Glass, etc., totaling 7,764 tons. In September due to various maintenance enterprise basic will resume normal operation, power rationing effect also basically eliminated, domestic polysilicon production is expected to increase by about 20%, the increment is mainly concentrated in the golden concord technology (xuzhou + leshan), new energy, wing cheung shares (leshan), east hope, qinghai li hao maintenance companies such as capacity recovery and new capacity to release a quantity to climb. The increase of domestic polysilicon supply in September will alleviate the current shortage of supply to a certain extent, but compared with the demand corresponding to the operating rate plan of silicon wafer enterprises, there is still a small gap. The supply and demand relationship of silicon material market will still support the price to maintain a relatively stable operation trend in the short term. However, the supply increase in the fourth quarter and the downstream cost pressure may put pressure on the intermediate links of the industrial chain to a certain extent, which will be gradually reflected in the price, inventory and operating rate. Finally, the price of silicon materials will fluctuate and adjust with the change of the downstream operating rate.
