7.27 Weekly evaluation of polysilicon: The signing order of the first reduction of silicon material output in the year is still being implemented
2022-07-29
This week, the price range of domestic single crystal re-feeding was 288-310,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 297,600 yuan/ton, which was stable month-on-month. The price range of single crystal compact material is 286,000-308,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price remains unchanged at 295,500 yuan/ton.
Domestic polysilicon prices rose this week, mainly due to the silicon material enterprises in the first week in July has long single sign during the month, or even super sign part order in August, then for two weeks only a small amount of scattered single clinch a deal, and by this week, there is no any allowance can be signed, so the market this week not clinch a deal, silicon material price so on stabilized. The stability of silicon prices this week is due to the lack of market transactions, not a change in the supply and demand situation, on the contrary, in July, due to the first decline in silicon production this year, the degree of demand is only increasing.
According to past practices, the silicon material enterprise long single sign period generally concentrated at the end of the month or early, but so far has not yet started a long list in August, is mainly due to the silicon part of July a line of giant overhaul production, in the full production run of silicon material production enterprises shall sign, the downstream demand is super to ensure its normal capacity, so a lot of the orders will be executed to enterprises in mid-august, even in early August Therefore, unlimited signability leads to a slight delay in the signing period of long order price concentration.
As of this week, there are still three domestic polysilicon manufacturers in maintenance, one of which is expected to gradually resume some production lines before the end of the month, and the other two will finish maintenance and resume normal operation in August and September respectively.
According to statistics, domestic polysilicon production in July was 58,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5%, basically consistent with expectations. The output of the top four enterprises totaled 48,700 tons, accounting for 83.2 percent of the total domestic output. In July, the reduction mainly came from Xinjiang GCL, Xinjiang Daqo, Oriental Hope, Tianhong Ruike, Poly Silicon, Luoyang Zhongsi, etc., with a total of 6,772 tons. The enterprises with a month-on-month increase included Yongxiang Stock, Baotou Xinte, Asia Silicon, etc., with a total of 3,670 tons of expanded production release. In August due to some enterprises overhaul production line recovery, domestic polysilicon production is expected to slightly higher than expected, incremental mainly in xinjiang xin and east hope production increment and leshan association xin, phase ii of baotou originality, Inner Mongolia tong wei, li hao in qinghai, Inner Mongolia east expansion has instant release quantity, increment of about 11000 tons, in the same period in August will add 1 to 2 companies overhaul, Month-on-month production reduction totaled about 2,600 tons.
As a result, price growth is expected to be relatively flat as long orders for August begin to be signed next week, based on an increase of around 13% month-over-month in domestic production in August, which will help alleviate the current supply crunch.
